Guest article: GLP-1 drugs: The effect on food systems is going to be profound… and relatively quick

Johan Jörgensen is the founder of Sweden Foodtech, a leading think tank on the future of food.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of AgFunderNews.

Some call me Mr. Foodtech. My true name, however, should be Mr. Gluttony. My love for food and drink has for most parts of my life seemed without limit. That lust has given me a somewhat rounded figure. And a very bad conscience. For decades (I am 57) my body shape and the coming diabetes and heart condition has scared me on a daily basis. Has that led to a change in lifestyle? Absolutely not. Until the arrival of Wegovy in my life.

In short, I have never seen, not the least experienced, such a profound transformative force in the world of food and it has led me to think in new directions on food and its future. To me, the arrival (and coming flood wave) of GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy, Ozempic, Saxenda and the others is one of those watershed moments that shifts the direction of humanity. Or, at least, it has enough of that potential to merit a deep, strategic rethink for every company in and around today’s food value chain.

Obesity does not just have a price for the ones carrying their extra kilos through life and death. Society is at a loss as well. A recent study from the Maastricht University in the Netherlands stated that an overweight or obese person cost society an average of €11,500 per year. It is not just about heart surgery, but even more so about productivity losses and lesser quality of life.

This is absolutely nothing new. That society would benefit from prevention of obesity is absolutely and totally clear and has started to manifest itself in areas such as sugar taxes. But while society moves painfully, agonizingly slowly in fixing the system that has allowed the food industry to push humanity into its collective obese state, medication is an individual choice. My GP had absolutely no hesitation in prescribing me Wegovy.

So, let us leave all the many, many arguments for systemic prevention (and how that could be very easily fixed) aside and focus on what GLP-1 drugs do for individuals. Me. To state the obvious, this is not a study, these are my personal reflections, but they have been confirmed by fat friends, also on the drug.

How GLP-1 drugs work

I cannot really fathom anyone in the food sector not being familiar with the notion of GLP-1 drugs, but here goes:

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists such as Wegovy are a class of diabetes drugs that help your brain regulate your appetite and reduce feelings of hunger. They also improve blood sugar levels through the enhanced secretion of insulin. This leads to weight loss. A lot of it. More on this below.

There are several varieties of the active substance. While Wegovy and Ozempic might be the most well-known brands, they are far from the only ones and with the breathtaking development of biotechnology and biomimetics (tweaking molecules somewhat to enhance effects or get away from patent-protected areas) a tsunami of alternatives will hit the market over the next few years. Nature did a good story on this recently (it comes highly recommended) and the short story is that availability and effects will increase and prices will come down radically as Big Pharma all over the world, not the least in China and India, rallies to be part of the bonanza.

Price is going to be the key point. If prices come down I see no end to the uptake. Because what thin people do not get is that we fatties cannot choose. The insatiable, burning hunger we can feel can only be compared to the sensation of being out of air under water. A predatory convenience system stands ready to fix us through ultra-processed, cheap and bad (but high margin) shit, that for some unbearable reason is allowed to be called food. Please, please, please understand that we do not want to take the drugs to be able to eat even more such shit – we want to get rid of the urge to! And we are willing to pay!

Cost benefit analysis

Currently this medicine-induced freedom is only available to the ones who can afford it (the treatment costs approximately €100/week so national healthcare systems do not want to pay) or, like me, are willing to prioritize not to die prematurely, for instance by letting go of the car or having fewer long haul vacations.

But if prices fall, more people will fit these drugs in their budgets and national healthcare systems will start prescribing them on a pure cost-benefit basis. Hey, we might even feel that we can afford to see this obesity epidemic for the epidemic it is; curing the effects while attacking the source of the epidemic at the same time.

(Actually, it is only about removing the blinds from our eyes and with a few strokes of a pen change things. That of course requires brave and change-willing policymakers, but perhaps one day they will emerge. Hint – there are many, many overweight and obese people who would vote for you.)

Even if such an epic transformation of our food systems will take some time to arrive, Wegovy and its cousins will be a key factor in changing food for good already in the next few years. Now, to my own results and reflections.

I eat at least 25% less, fast food and snacks are virtually absent from my spending

After a little more than three months I am down almost 10% of my body weight and am on the verge of going from obese to merely overweight. That is the same result as if I had engaged with serious dieting. But it has been effortless and I simply will not fail this time. Again, what thin people do not get is that dieting for a fat person like me is going against nature and nature always wins. But now I have the food habits of a thin person in a vial. It is pure magic!

As a rough estimate, I eat at least 25% less now than before taking the drug. I furthermore do not crave snacks, fat- or sugar-kicks. I am totally uninterested in heavy foods such as beef or cheese, and me not being interested in cheese is alien-sized stuff. My consumption of wine has also gone down significantly, which means that the late night glass(es) of a good red to go with the cheese platter is a habit of the past. As are the extra calories.

Of course my food budget has plummeted and while the money saved probably does not quite make up for the cost of Wegovy – though I am not absolutely sure about this – the net effect on my economy is not that bad. This means I have transferred a significant portion of my wallet from food companies to pharma.

Let us ponder that for a moment. I pay pretty heavily for medicine (but I will pay less going forward) and less for food. Fast food and snacks are virtually absent from my spending. Heavy foods such as beef and cheese are gone. Carbs-heavy dishes such as pizza and pasta are served in much smaller portions. Pastries and crisps have lost their attraction, as have candy.

For some reason I crave more fruit and veg, seafood and…ice cream…which I used not to. So, my sweet tooth is not all gone. I still enjoy life and food, though not in the same way.

But my new character is not only limited to the home. Lunch is no longer a glowing height of the workday – I tend to skip or eat something small. Going out to a good restaurant is still fun, but I spend far less on food and wine and definitely would not order the same dishes as before.

Me, and my fellow round ones have kept certain parts of the food sector on a profitable growth path for decades. What if we will not anymore?

Snacks and fast food under threat

Now, it is impossible to draw statistically correct conclusions from the sample of one, but for someone like me who over the last dozen+ years has been thinking 24/7 about our food systems and the innovations that will change it, a veil has been lifted. I have simply been given a new lens through which to see the future development of food and I recommend it to everyone thinking about food.

My basic conclusion is that the shift is going to be profound, relatively quick and seriously affect a long range of players both within and outside the current food value chain. Because when I and my soon-to-be-former fat friends shift our business, profits will turn to losses and there might be a need for massive write-downs and/or shut-downs. We will not shed a tear. You will not be missed.

The snack category looks pretty threatened. Fast food will probably take a hit. I have serious doubts about the continued growth of beef. Cheese and dairy (also tightly connected to beef) look vulnerable, as do producers of all sorts of cookies, sweets and other items high in sugar and fats.

But the developments are not limited to food. Certain types of healthcare services such as gastric bypass and heart surgery will see less growth. As will personal mobility devices, walking sticks and specialty shoes.

People in and outside food should therefore start to strategically think about what a thinner world will look like. I am no longer the victim of a dysfunctional food system. I am free!

Further reading:

From ‘GLP-1 companion foods’ to ‘Nature’s Ozempic…’ What the new breed of weight loss drugs means for the food industry

Mattson probes Ozempic effect on food innovation, from mini-bites and hydrating pops to lighter protein drinks

🎥 Supergut shines in Ozempic era: ‘We’ve tripled the business over the past 5-6 months’

How Ozempic changed my mind, body – and investment strategy