US retail sales of plant-based milk fell 5.2% in the year to July 14, with units down 5.9%, according to new data from SPINS shared with AgFunderNews. Sales of almond milk continued to decline, while sales of oat and soy milk remained flat.
For context, US retail sales of dairy milk—which have been on a declining trajectory for years despite a brief blip during the pandemic—fell 2.1% to $17.2 billion over the same period with units down 0.8%.
While almond milk remains the leading player in the plant-based milk category by some measure, sales fell 8.5% to $1.5 billion over the period with units down 8.9%.
Sales of oat milk, which has been on an explosive growth trajectory in recent years, fell 3% year-over-year to $608.6 million in the refrigerated set, with units down 0.8%, but rose 14.2% to $81.3 million in the smaller shelf-stable set, with units up 11.5%.
Soy milk, which at its peak generated $1 billion+ in annual retail sales in the US, has lost significant market share to almond and oat over the past decade, with sales plateauing at around $212 million in the year to July 14, with units down 3.9%.
The only major subsegment delivering meaningful growth over the 52-week period was coconut milk, with dollar sales up 12.6% to $137 million and units up 13.9%, albeit off a small base.
Dave Ritterbush, CEO at plant-based dairy co Califia Farms, told AgFunderNews: “The premium end of the category is performing very well with growth in all of the recent periods. The drains on the category have been driven by Silk [Danone] and private label. The root cause of the private label performance in recent periods may be related to some major line conversions at some of the larger retailers.
“The plant milk category still remains larger than it was prior to the pandemic and consumers are showing strong interest in increasing their consumption in the future.”
He added: “Califia is one of the strongest performers in the category with share gains in every period in the last year. The growth is being fueled by the launch of our new organic line with only 3 -4 simple ingredients, but Califia is also seeing strong performance from its conventional line.”
US retail sales, 52 weeks to July 14, 2024 (% year-over-year growth/decline):
- Plant-based milk: Dollars -5.2% to $2.85 billion, units -5.9%
- #1 – Almond milk: Dollars -8.5% to $1.55 billion, units -8.9%
- #2 – Oat milk: Dollars -1.25% to $690 million, units +0.5%
- #3 – Soy milk: Dollars +0.2% to $212 million, units -3.9%
- #4 – Coconut milk: Dollars +12.7% to $137 million, units +13.9%
Plant-based milk in foodservice
In the US foodservice channel, plant-based milk experienced strong growth in 2023, with sales surging 21% to $222m to capture a 12% share of the total milk market in broadline distributor sales, while volumes rose 18%, according to a recent report from nonprofit The Good Food Institute (GFI).
Looking back over the past five years, says the GFI, dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 81% vs 2019 in US foodservice, with volumes up 55%. For context, conventional milk dollar sales grew 34% while volumes grew 8% over the same timeframe.
According to the GFI:
- 44% of US households purchased plant-based milk in 2023.
- 25% of households purchasing plant-based milk also purchased plant-based meat and seafood.
- Plant-based milk accounted for almost 15% of all dollar sales of total milk in US retail in 2023.
- Households with children are more likely to spend more on plant-based milk.
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