The film’s premise is that the climate crisis and rising food demand are creating a new scramble for farmland. As much as the story is sensationalized with sinister private military companies and greedy Wall Street investors, it is all very sensible.
There is a growing recognition that global heating will redistribute water. The net effect will be less arable land. China already does not have enough water to grow food to feed its 1.4 billion people, and is reliant on imports.
By 2050, there will also be another two billion people on the planet. Wealthier people in countries such as China, whose meat consumption is catching up to that of the US, will further demand more food per capita.
With memories of the Arab Spring, China’s Great Famine, or Soviet supply shortages, leaders such as Sheikh Tahnoun, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin are looking to acquire overseas agricultural assets to secure food access for their populations
The competition for farmland is playing out in countries such as Zambia, one of the last agricultural frontiers rich in water resources, with disastrous effects on local populations. More surprisingly, it is also taking place in wealthier places including the US.
China bought one in four American pigs overnight with the purchase of Smithfield Foods. Saudi Arabia is sucking up groundwater in Arizona to grow hay for its cattle. Russia is recruiting cowboys from Nebraska to train its next generation of cattle herders.
At the same time, the idea that – gasp – other countries stealing resources from the US should be controversial is a bit laughable. The US and Europe have been plundering the rest of the world through outright conquest or neocolonialism since Columbus.
Another weakness was the implication that farmland is becoming an increasingly traded financial asset primarily because of climate and population pressures. More context would have been appreciated on how structural factors in the economy are changing farming.
Inflation and uncertainty are pushing investors toward agricultural assets, whose returns are less coupled with the rest of the economy. Whether the climate crisis and greater food demand are the main drivers underlying these economic trends is debatable.
Apart from these minor issues, the documentary lands on its feet. It acknowledges that it is only fair that foreign leaders want to have enough to feed their citizens. Rather than compete with them over limited food resources, the US should find ways to cut its own overconsumption and free up more food for other countries.
Ultimately, what I appreciated most about The Grab was its focus on slow and steady trends that often don’t make the headlines, but do a lot to explain them.
